Overbooking & Booking Limit Optimizer

Balance spoilage (empty seats due to no-shows) and denied boarding (IDB) costs. Provide capacity, average fare, show rate and variability; we enumerate booking limits and compute expected contribution to find the optimum.

Capacity (Seats)

Avg Net Fare (USD)

Mean Show Rate (%)

Show Rate Std Dev (pp)

Denied Boarding Cost / Pax

Max Overbooking Seats (range)

Ready.

Show rate distribution approximated as normal; seats boarded = min(capacity, shows). Denied boarding seats = max(shows - capacity,0). Expected value computed numerically from discretized distribution. For small samples binomial(n=bookingLimit,p=showRate) would be more exact.

Optimal Booking Limit

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Expected Profit (Opt)

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Expected Spoilage (Opt)

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Expected IDB Seats (Opt)

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Limit	Exp Pax	Spoilage	IDB	Profit